Mkilloran, I love the chart you present, the only problem is knowing ahead of time who the survivors will be, if in your list you replace CSCO and ASND with CS, Dell with ASTA, Commodore or if you remember them the toy company that came up with ADAM, INTC with AMD or even better with the forerunners to INTC which no longer exist, you can see that unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to see beyond few years who will succeed and who will fail. As a matter of fact, in high tech, you know that a great number of stars are going to be carcasses few years down the road (SYQT). IOM could not fail, but I got out after a triple bagger (and left another triple bagger on the table) and now the stock is at 30% of what I sold it at and at almost a tenth of its peak.
It is the nature of the high tech environment that rapid technological changes obsolete the current starts, and only very few companies manage to establish such a command in their market place and use their profits wisely to maintain their dominance in their markets. Look at the semis, three years ago they were spending 30% of sales on capex, this a murderous rate of reinvestment leaving no room on a cash flow basis for errors (not talking even about leaving room for dividends (G)).
As I said before, I have no current visibility of the potential threats, but just because I am paranoid, it does not means "they" are not following me (G).
Zeev |
