Call me chicken ...
I can't see a computer being sold with Windows on it ten years out but you won't see me short MSFT.
Don't underestimate Microsoft. They still have a huge installed base of desktop operating systems, legions of mindless followers, $20,000,000,000 in cash and another $80,000,000,000 in Bill's checkbook.
They can continue to "innovate" by purchasing innovative companies. There are roughly 2,000,000 laws to bend and plenty of potential partners to hose.
Their fingers are into other pies such as Teledesic, broadband ...
It's a marketing steamroller I wouldn't want to be in front of. Bill has proven that he knows how to make money ... even with mediocre products.
I don't see the stock hurt by a guilty verdict for the reasons mentioned above.
However, regardless of the verdict ... maybe companies like Intel won't be intimidated in the future. (Can you imagine being able to intimidate INTC?) And MSFT's contracts and business practices may be watched more closely by the DOJ.
I'm playing MSFT's long term challenges by being long on SUNW, NOVL, IFMX, etc.
I'm concentrating on LU, CSCO, DELL and checking out ATHM, RNWK, CKFR, UNPH ... etc.
The beauty of running a Linux operating system is ... your computer doesn't freeze ... and you don't have to curse MSFT.
Now that Dell is offering Linux on their servers, I'm going to buy some DELL. Ironically, that may be the best play on a guilty verdict.
Best of luck. |
