Donald - I'm a newbie to TA since last July so feel free to critique me as I throw in my 2c on price targets via EW eyes. My EW analysis is based on Robert Miner's "Dynamic Trading". The basic theory is when time, price and pattern coincide, change is highly probable, if not inevitable. On 02/04/99/post #5398 I posted my initial observances to Lee here on the MDA thread. I then read from post #5493 by John Pitera that "One good starting point for analysis is suggested by our 108-109 week cycle, the time window for its resolution was between December 24 and February 4. That's today. The highest Dow high in that time period was 9647.96 on an actual print basis. That occurred on January 8. The lowest low in that time window was 9063.26 on January 25. We believe whichever of those high or lows is violated first will identify the other one as the resolution of the 108-109 week cycle, whether it is a top or a bottom. A move above the January 8 high, for example, would now suggest even further madness to the upside for at least a few more weeks and it would suggest that we had seen a cycle bottom on January 25. On the other hand, a move below the January 25 low, would suggest the January 8 would end up being an important top." Here is a link where you can take a look at both scenarios homestead.com.
I'm not sure what the S&P 500 QIX stands for and the #'s do not match up exactly with SPH99,the March S&P 500 but the time and price targets for each scenario are there for you to see. Using the SPH99 #'s instead of the ones charted in scenario #1(bullish) your first target is 1313.72 then next the range of 1335.35-1343.65. The most probable time frame a la fibonacci is 02/08/99-02/09/99. In my opinion scenario #2(bearish) is more likely to be taking place. Which is we are in the beginning of a downtrend at minor wave 3 of 1 or A. The price targets here for SPH99 are 1204.50 then 1151.35. The first time frame for a minor trend reversal to the upside is 02/11/99-02/12/99 then 02/18/99-02/19/99. As previously stated, we had a perfect ascending triangle in place until Friday, 02/05/99. The close of yesterday penetrated below the upward sloping bottom boundary(bearish). If the price on Monday does not close back into the triangle then this is another bit of evidence for the bearish scenario. I am not a daytrader so until I see 1290.50 broken on the upside I will not be long the S&P. That's me opinion FWIW, comments welcome - Lenny. |
