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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 178.17

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Hector who wrote (6386)	2/6/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: Nevin S.	Read Replies (2) of 12623

Can't entirely disagree with you Dave that some Houses may upgrade a stock just as some of their bigger clients are getting out with big profits. Alternatively, as the post on Yahoo (that I copied in my last message) indicates, most analysts wait for some upward momentum before recommending a stock. Personally, I have found greater integrity with Lehman Bros. analysts than any other I have followed as a rule. They stick with their recommendations on a company unless company fundamentals have changed for the worse. This is different from other analysts like T. Kurlak (for those of you who follow semiconductors) that upgrade and downgrade every month based on minute changes in market conditions. If you follow someone like Kurlak you'll lose money and get a bad case of whiplash to boot. CIEN is a great company with leading edge technology (IMO) in a fast growing market segment (providing bandwidth for voice & data). And, I think we are just on the verge of an upswing. True, some players may be getting out now having doubled their money from November. Me I'm sticking with this one. Made the mistake of selling too soon with RFMD. I was in that stock for nearly a year and one-half at a basis of 18 bought more at 12 and more again at 10. From Oct '98, it went from the mid-teens to 37 by the end of the year where I sold. It continued up into the 70's and has since pulled back into the mid-60's. The lesson I learned was not to sell early in the cycle when investors are putting their toes back in the water. The one caveat I or qualifier I should make is that this applies to well run companies with good technology and strong growth prospects. AMD exemplifies the importance of this principle. If anyone is interested and so inclined, I would whole heartedly recommend going out to Lehman Bros. site and reading up on the whole telecom sector. Their reports are very concise, well thought out and provide an excellent basis for investment decisions. I can't remember if they follow CIEN but the reading is very insightful and offers a good context if you're a Ciena investor. lehman.com

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