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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37232)	2/6/1999 8:34:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) of 94695

From Jim Stack's recent newsletter: 1) 1968 was the final year of the Go-Go Fund mania of the 1960s, and saw average intraday volatility (calculated as the daily theoretical high minus theoretical low divided by the average of those same 2 numbers) of 1.71%-the highest in 30 years. Over the next 18 months, the Dow dropped over 35%. 2)The bear market years of '73 and '74 saw intraday volatility peak at a new 40 year high of 2.47%. The S&P 500 lost over 48% during those 2 years. 3) It wasn't until 13 years later that a new peak of 2.62% would be set for the infamous 1987. Even before crash day that year, '87 was on track for the second highest volatility in 50 years. 4) While 1997 came close to setting a new 60 year record, 1998 did hit a new high at 2.64%. But that's nothing compared to what we're seeing in 1999... 5)After the first 3 1/2 weeks of trading, intraday volatility for 1999 is running over 20% higher than last year's record breaking number. Last week's average on the Dow was 3.05%, the record-breaking pace continues.

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