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Technology Stocks : Sterling Commerce (SE)
SE 145.38+2.2%9:48 AM EST

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To: Resry who wrote (141)2/6/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: Dave Chanoux  Read Replies (1) of 341
 
This smells (pardon the grammar) a lot like Parametric Technology 6-9 months ago. Bob Howarth follows that one too. The analysts' model is simplistic: Revenue is made up of license revenue and service revenue. You have to get the license revenue before you can get the service revenue.

Parametric license revenue stopped growing last year. Total revenue stopped growing 6-9 months later.

But the analogy doesn't work here. Parametric sells to engineering departments of manufacturing companies. The engineers eventually figure it out and don't continue to buy the service. Sterling sells to banks. Bankers are, well you know... They continue to need the service.

The analysts reaction to SE news and the SE share price have followed the same model as Parametric Technology, 6-9 months later. Is their model correct? I doubt it.

Someone else should jump in to keep this discussion alive. I'm going off to listen to the conference call replay if it is still available.

I own the stock.

Regards,

Dave Chanoux
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