lrrp,
It's hard to come up with a value for ICG's investments, given the premiums that exist for Internet stocks right now. At any given moment, a stock can be stratospherically priced, but when the tide turns, it can be worth almost nothing. It's so speculative, that I can't even begin.
But, it's also hard to have been wrong (at least short-term) about Safeguard's price when it was at 28, only to see it rise above 40. Do I think a 77% premium is too much? Yes. Do I think it's a smaller premium and better company than most Internet companies? Yes.
So, what would get me back in long? A fairly decent correction in tech would be a start. That should take most companies down into a better value range, and I'd be willing to purchase Safeguard at whatever it was trading at then. I'd also like more answers on Caldwell and why they feel the need to make silly announcements about focusing on the Internet now. Perhaps next they will put a link to Amazon.com on their page and announce they are "associates" of Amazon.
And, of course, I'd like to see some rights offerings (I don't believe Who? Vision will be next, since biometrics is not going where I hoped it would be by now, and I think Who? Vision knows that, too). PacWest would be a spectacular offering, but since they just had a debt offering, I think they will wait until later in the year, or 2000 when all the Y2K risk is behind everyone (phone networks will be particularly high-profile and vulnerable to any Y2K problems).
Good investing,
--John |
