Actually, platinum shares do not look all that attractive from where I am, so I don't think you have missed anything. It's surprising the shares are so dull since the price of the metal, itself, looks like it's poised for an upturn, if not actually in the process. Further, we must not forget that in 1989 the Rand was worth 35 US cents. It's now worth 16c US. So, on account of the devaluation, alone, one would have expected the shares to double in price (in SAf) over this time but, as you can see, that didn't happen. I know there has been a lot of trouble with labor on the Pt mines and I believe the local tribe of Bofokeng, in some way, have also cut themselves into the action.
I'm not clued up on platinum shares. In fact, I lost interest in them some years ago. Amplats (Rusplats) has been in a virtual trading range for the past 10 years between R6 and R10 (approx). Impala is owned by Gencor/Billiton and it has been in a similar trading range to Amplats. Of the two, I would say Impala looks the more interesting being in a definite upward move, at the moment. This seems to agree with the US viewpoint, which you mention. If you feel confident on platinum then this one might be your best bet. I don't think there are too many platinum investments, other than the SAf ones. Maybe if you are able to trade on the LSE there will be more liquidity for the shares.
Anglo is very keen on platinum. They recently did much ducking and diving to try and get hold of Lonhro's African platinum interests but, finally, a European committee of some sort ruled against the takeover on the grounds that it would make Anglo too dominant in the industry. Also, when they broke up JCI, they made it quite clear that the platinum interest was not for sale. Then they renamed Rusplat, Amplat.
Anglo also likes cartels. That's why I am always alluding to them trying to make one in the gold mining industry. As you know, it was because the CSO was able to control the flow of diamonds to the market, and hold the price of rough stones, that diamonds became an investment (of a sort). Clearly, such a control mechanism would help the gold industry, too. As things stand, should POG rise, say to $350, there would be such a profusion of increased mining and forward selling that the price would quickly fall back. For gold to be a good investment and not just a commodity, there has to be some means to limit total production and/or dumping and/or forward-selling at the higher prices. Unfortunately, for that to happen there also has to be collusion which, of course, is illegal. |
