I don't recommend stock market books. You have to learn this by many hard years of struggle. The broader your experience such as is obtainable through a professional position in Wall Street, the greater is your ability to survive. You only need to survive and persist. I do have one book, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", by Jesse Livermore. It's a fun book.
As far as the state equations go they are my own creation of 20 years ago when I was mathematician and market maker, an odd combo. It deals with Brownian Motion---how things wiggle from one point to another under constraints---and is too complex to discuss unless you're an experienced theoretical physicist familiar with QFT, information theory, and econometrics.
Why not follow what I had recommended in the posts? Hold. Long ago I convincingly argued to you that you shouldn't write against this stock. There were periods in the interim where you could have gotten away with it, but if you had been even slightly wrong, you would have missed the upside action. You admitted later that I had advised you wisely. To be perfectly accurate about this stuff isn't possible because you have to know how stupid people can get. Could anyone have guessed that AMZN would get to, not 500 in 2 years, but 600 in three months!? You have to take that under advisement. That's crazy on any planet in the universe. It is as though the entire future of the Internet has been discounted. That's the excesses of the madness of hysterical crowds.
Meanwhile, if one goes to these various sites, you get the "not available" warning page. They're falling like flies because it is still the case just as it was two years ago, that few can make any money at this Internet bag. It is now setting up to be an information and entertainment vehicle. That's good but there isn't enough value added in it to expect the boat loads of money implied by the public's lunatic binge in Wall Street.
I hear a lot of sneering when I compare this with '29. It's far worse. To deny that is not being objective or is self-delusion with the "new era", or it is a mistaken understanding of the '29 crash and depression. The '29 crash was no worse than any other big sell-off. A year after the crash the market started persisting down. One could have easily gotten out between 11/29 and 5/30, but the people were completely convinced, just like they are now, that the market would soon go to new highs. So they held greedily. It was several years later that the economy started suffering and that was due mostly to incredibly stupid moves by the FED. We will always be hostage to this as long as the central bank persists with the old erroneous practices, but much blame can be laid at the feet of the public.
You have trusted me before, but don't do that. Separate ATHM from Wall Street. Hold ATHM and sell Wall Street. Try to look at what I write from the perspective of a bear. Think in terms that you are short. You will certainly be in the minority in spite of all the pseudo-bearish big talk. There are a few who read what I write and consider it manna from heaven because it restores faith in the elementary abiding truths. They have an ass-busting great time with it. Only the angry bulls are upset. What does that tell you after looking at a chart of the NAZ? It is all a matter of attitude and perspective. |
