Al R / Portfolios
Uggghhhh is the byword of the past three weeks. However, I can't say I didn't tell myself so. I forecasted a further drop of 10% in oil and gas stocks just before the recent decline. Saw it coming, but the drop in share value for some of the companies were unexpected.
I see I'm down 9.6% since the first of the year and the producers index is down 9.7%. For the patient investor, now is the time to be accumulating shares in the companies that have been beaten down in share price and still offer good solid fundamentals. However, I would still advise caution to the extent of waiting for the annual reports to be released by the senior, intermediate and larger juniors before stepping in with large investments. This will eliminate the surprise elements in their reporting. Surprises should be noted before or at the time of the annual report release. I believe the keyword is "accumulate" at this time.
People reviewing the portfolios should be aware these were not stocks chosen at the beginning of the year. Selections for the portfolios started about three years ago and what is listed is the updated progress to the start of this year. It is from this point that you are reporting progress. There is an exception. I did list a good portion of the $2.00 and under buys in my speculation basket for 1999.
You might want to consider a status of buy - accumulate - hold for each listing (B-A-H) in each portfolio. This will give the interested viewer an idea of my current sentiment on any given holding. As example, I really like Bonavista Petroleum and it is one of my better performers. However, I would not recommend buying or accumulating shares in the company at this time for I feel further upside in the share price is limited.
I can provide the data for you.
In the meantime, compliments are due your way. You've developed a nice website in what has been a very short period of time. I'm still receiving nice comments from people who think it is part of my doing. I'm passing on the word that it is your undertaking and you deserve all the credit.
The portfolios must perform in such a nature so I can get some credit also. However, I don't believe it will be overnight. Long term, I'm a very strong believer -- as all know.
This is a period of buying opportunity. We are at historical lows in terms of oil prices and stock indexes. When the upward cycle starts, people will then begin to recognize how cheap shares were at this time. Hind sight is worth a million and many of us have used "if we just recognized what was going on at the tim we would of made a fortune." Well, from now thru the third quarter might just be the time to position for that fortune.
One positive sign at the present time is that money is moving out of the hi-tech areas (especially internet stocks) and into industries that offer value. The pro's are beginning to establish positions in the oils. CNBC has repeatedly stated this situation over the past couple of weeks.
In terms of earnings and cash flow, I see the fourth quarter of 1999 being the pivotal point for the oils. If I'm right, I see some pretty good returns on investment 12-15 months out in time.
Kerm |
