Hi Steve, It may be easier to enlarge a clean room to include more CMP, but the point is that it takes time. That is why it will be 2000 by the time they get around to this. DRAM bit demand will have jumped 60-70% by then and supply will fall short.
Steve, I appreciate your input, but unless there is evidence of full conversion at all fabs and lines, then it is safe to assume that the bulk of output is still at 0.25 micron and die size of 100mm2 plus for 64meg. Years of experience have told me not to take what companies tell you at face value; analyzing, cross-referencing, developing correlations, regressions etc. provide checks and balances to the naturally optimistic projections of companies and the misleading hype of journalists. Too many people on this thread take these announcements at face value and get burned. However, it makes money for those of us that are on step ahead of the curve and can see the big picture. As I have stated before, every announcement and statement must be placed into context. Bit supply growth may jump by 50% this year, but if this growth is outstripped by demand then we still have a shortage of DRAMs out there. |
