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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: Mr. Pink who wrote (6655)2/9/1999 12:19:00 AM
From: Mr. Blonde  Read Replies (3) of 18998
 
Mr. Pink,

I humbly give my opinion.

VNWK $34: Good long term short sale, IMHO. Would love an opinion from the Master.

CSCO teamed up with CCRD and are slowly eating up the entire end to end equipment space to offer to communication service providers. Ascend teamed up with someone else. The devil is in the details as confusion spreads. This announcement: biz.yahoo.com
seems to have hit the space that VNWK plays in. However, the positive analysts are still saying that CSCO/CCRD do not do real-time monitoring. DLJ seems to think VNWK's upside is limited as CSCO and CCRD move in. It seems to me that if they don't do real time now, CSCO and CCRD will certainly do it in the near future.

CCRD is telling people that they intend, with CSCO, to offer full end-to-end solutions for service providers for voice, data, and video, all over virtual private networks to satisfy all Service Level Agreements (SLAs: e.g. the CCRD/CSCO equipment would allow the service providers, like AT&T, Sprint, MCI to provide and correctly bill for these services). This is a fact. To do this, I would think real-time performance monitoring would be needed.

This was my original post,
Message 6732743
I think all of that post is true except when CSCO or CCRD will actually begin shipping. I had thought they were already, but I don't think its true. Maybe the noise was from a beta customer. CSCO and CCRD have announced their intention to ship their RTR (Response Time Reporter) technology in the next quarter or two.

The announcement of new product offerings from CSCO could slow orders for VNWK gear immediately.
But, VNWK may have a large backlog and could still report good first half 1999 quarters.

Hope this helps.

Still going for a Pinkie award,
Mr. Blonde
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