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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (1968)2/9/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Ritz  Read Replies (1) of 2946
 
Ian:

Re: "we have included information in the attached table that should assist investors in making a more informed investment decision"

An informed investment decision? What a quaint notion in this day and age! Indeed, SVGI is both Undervalued and Undiscovered, however these days those two terms only point to a third and more unfortunate U, Underperforming. Perhaps what this stock needs is less dissemination of information and more HYPE. YES, RABID, FROTHING AT THE MOUTH, HYPE.

Indeed, it is quite a simple matter to construct a potential scenario for SVGI that would put most Internuts to shame. After what are we buying SVGI for? The lithography division. A division that owns a 3-4% market share of what (in a healthy year anyway) would be a 7-8 billion market. Yet SVGI has some of the best technology in the field. Its catadioptric reduction lens is uniquely extendable to 157nm, and SVGI is expected to deliver such a system before the end of next year. SVGI is the only lithography provider that has even announced that it is working on such a solution! In addition, its experience in reflective as well as aspheric optics (via Tinsley) make it the leading contender in being the first to provide an EUV lithography solution, and it is already working closely with Intel (the leading EUV backer) to develop such a system. If EUV proves to be a superior to e-beam based alternatives (given the conservatism of lithography engineers even equality might be enough), come 2005 or 6, SVGI might well come to DOMINATE the entire lithography market with its 157nm and EUV scanners! What would that mean for SVGI? Let's see, out of a total projected market of perhaps 1500 scanners by that time lets say "domination" would mean perhaps 1000 machines. ASPs? How about 12 mil for the 157s and 18 mil for the EUV machines (not unreasonable at all I think), lets say 50% for each for an average of 15mil X 1000= 15 billion top line. 20% net margins sound about right 15bil X .2=3 billion or about $100 dollars a share with p/e of 30 that gives us $3000 share!!!

SVGI IS GOING TO $3000/SHARE, GET ON THE FREIGHT TRAIN NOW OR GET LEFT BEHIND ON THE CHANCE OF A LIFETIME!!!!!!!!! DUMP YOUR IMON, YOUR YAHOO AND AMZN....SVGI IS THE TICKET TO RICHES!!!! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!!!!!!

Well, maybe anyway....<ggggg>

-Ritz
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