Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 160.55

-4.8%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jong Hyun Yoo who wrote (2547)	2/9/1999 5:23:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) of 5867

JHY, You are just about right ... I think you are trying to get at the incremental margins ... so, you first have to absorb the overhead and fixed costs ... with breakeven somewhere between $160mm and $170mm (as far as we know ... in a more "normal pricing environment") ... you have to back that number out of the $1.2bn ... this gets you to $5.20-ish or so using this methodology ... Obviously, there are tons of variables here ... why wouldn't the revenues be higher than the last peak? Do we really know what breakeven is? Is the incremental margin really that high? Isn't this all going to be a moot after the merger (huh?)? I would say that we are a bit premature in plugging in these figures ... though I do feel that at some point in the next recovery (this one ... if this is one) we will see this earnings leverage ... ... and the people will rejoice ... the wine will be plentiful and the fattened calf will be prepared for the feast ... and my profits will be as numerous as the grains of sand on the beach ... and amongst the bears, there will be much moaning and gnashing of teeth !!! --Duker

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