Hi all; Still more EE-Times articles. Did everyone catch the business announcement that a company is going to start giving away PCs for free? These are pretty nice machines, too:
Firm Offers Free PC for Information
Success of Free-PC.com hinges on the notion the company will earn enough money from ads to underwrite the $500 cost of each computer. Participants will get a Compaq Presario Internet PC equipped with a 333 MHz processor, 32 megabytes of RAM, a 4-gigabyte hard drive and 33.6-kilobyte modem. The deal also includes free Internet access.
dailynews.yahoo.com
I shouldn't have to repeat that I believe the PC box industry is in the process of undergoing a revolution that will leave the industry in tatters, particularly as compared to how business will fare in the company(ies) that will control the key technology for the cheaper PCs of the future.
If you look back over the last 50 years history of technology transfer to developing countries, you see a repeated theme: First, a new technology is developed in the advanced countries, where it proves to be a highly profitable way to print money. The developing countries conclude that they need that technology, and go to what ever lengths seem necessary to achieve it. Eventually, the developing countries take over the industry, but they are never as profitable as before, largely due to the price crash associated with the sudden increase in competition.
As examples of this, I am thinking steel, maybe oil, automobiles, plastics, paper, machine tools, etc. The industries chosen for this sort of change are ones where labor is a significant percent of costs, and where the technology is generally available without huge costs. (For instance, I think central processor design is probably safe from developing world competition for another decade or so, due to the massive complexity of big modern chips.)
I think the PC box makers industry is ripe for this sort of change, we only have to wait for a further continuation in the standardization of the PC. Here are some articles showing what China is doing, for instance:
Chinese PC Makers Make Inroads Against Rivals
Chinese computer makers have been pushing hard to gain market share as part of a larger drive by the Chinese government to bolster its indigenous product-design and manufacturing capabilities.
techweb.com
IBM China eyes PC, Web
IBM's shift comes as U.S. PC makers' share of the Chinese market is slipping while Chinese manufacturers such as Legend and Founder gain ground on their home turf,
techweb.com
I think that as long as the key technology in PCs consists of the (highly integrated) processor, which remains in the hands of a few American companies, the Japanese computer industry will be in trouble, but so will the those parts of the US computer industry that are not connected in with system on a chip technology:
A fresh wave of red ink washes over chip giants
Hitachi said last week it is closing its U.S. PC sales arm, Hitachi PC Corp., because of poor sales.
techweb.com
-- Carl |
