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Biotech / Medical : Munch-a-Biotech Today

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To: LLCF who wrote (131)	2/9/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 3158

David, Part of what's unique about biotech is that the insiders may (sometimes) be as surprised as the rest of us when a drug prospect bombs. One of the problems with small biotechs is that I think there is sometimes a process of self-deception. When so much of the company's (and executives') fortune are tied up in just a few drug candidates, it is awfully tempting to not ask the key questions and/or not perform the key experiments that might doom your candidate. The big pharma, with a few hundred candidates, can afford to be much more dispassionate. However, insider purchases, sales and even the lack thereof can be useful data points. A pattern of purchases and/or sales followed by silence can be an indicator of a big development (on either the upside or downside). SEPR is a good example of the absence of insider sales despite a soaring price. Compare to say AGPH, where there was a steady drumbeat of sales in the early surge after Viracept approval. The AGPH example is the norm, and may indicate nothing more than executives sensibly diversifying. Peter

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