Deere's annual has been filed, at Edgar. Here's an excerpt, on their take on market conditions:
<Grain and oilseed prices declined significantly during the fourth quarter on
prospects for record or near-record crop production and the effects of
weakening demand from Asia. Pork prices moved substantially lower as well. As
a result, United States farm income is expected to decline in 1999, despite a
recently enacted emergency government-aid package. At the same time, farm
income declines are expected in other parts of the world, and unsettled
financial conditions should continue to have an unfavorable impact on credit
availability in emerging markets. Accordingly, retail demand for agricultural
equipment in 1999 is now projected to decline by 20 percent in North America,
by 10 percent in Europe, and by 15 percent in Latin America and Australia.
The Company's first quarter financial results will be significantly affected
by the reduced production schedules for large tractors and combines
associated with this lower level of demand.
North American construction equipment industry sales and housing starts are
expected to decline slightly next year, but remain at favorable levels. In
addition, the Company is implementing an initiative aimed at better matching
production schedules to customer orders, leading to lower field inventories
and improved product availability. Initial stages of implementation will
result in lower shipments to dealers.
Sales of commercial and consumer equipment should continue to increase in
1999 following strong gains in 1998. New product introductions are expected
to expand the Company's position in the many growing markets served by this
division.
Credit operations are expected to improve in 1999 because of a larger
portfolio, primarily due to recent growth in leasing. Insurance and health
care operations also are well-positioned for improved results. At the same
time, the Company's Financial Services subsidiaries are expected to see
continued margin pressure, resulting from their highly competitive markets.
Based on these conditions, the Company's worldwide physical volume of sales
is currently projected to decline by approximately 13 to 15 percent in 1999,
compared with 1998. In this environment, the previously stated goal of
reporting flat earnings per share in 1999 is not achievable. First quarter
physical volume in 1999 is projected to be 23 to 25 percent below the
comparable level of the first quarter of 1998.
2
The present economic situation is challenging the Company to balance its
response to current conditions with its ongoing need for investment in its
future. In this regard, the Company has reduced capital spending and is
aggressively managing costs and assets, while pursuing further efficiency
gains through various quality and supply management initiatives. At the same
time, the Company fully intends to maintain its commitment to the key
projects that underlie its plans for global growth and long-term market-share
improvement.>
Bob, on AG insider activity: Chart I was looking at didn't show names. Just showed several sells at about the 10-11 dollar range. Turns out these were small, by one person--as you noted. Previous to that were all the sales in May last year, at much higher price. Still, I think I'll wait until I see some positive evidence from the insiders. I've got DE, which I'm nervous enough about--given their view of market conditions and need for channel emptying quoted above.
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