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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold
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To: DanZ who wrote (270)2/9/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Phil Cressman  Read Replies (1) of 5582
 
Very interesting!

I note that production of 18,000 units per day would allow for meeting, in 194 days of production, the 3.5 M units projected for obtaining 3% of the market.

This cold remedy market is cyclical in nature so increased production would be required to fill the pipeline in September if the remainder of this year's cold season does generate good sales & therefor good marketing & sales information for the next cold season!

While late in the cold season for most of the USA I would expect that after initial shipments are sold out there should still be time for word of mouth sales and reorders as a result. We could expect some individuals (myself included) to purchase for the medicine cabinet to have on hand when cold symptoms arise.

Sales for the next three months are only guesswork but even with 50 days production at 18,000 units would cost in the order of $4m to produce & ship. With payment terms of net 60 days this is enough for Gumm to finance this season.

Retail sales of 900,000 units would IMHO be outstanding if recorded by May and give us a really good idea of the sales volume for the next season!

I would hope the stock trades in the $l8-$25 range by end May if these projections become a reality!
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