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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: John Pitera who wrote (18698)2/9/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (2) of 86076
 
Well, john. I just eye balled the numbers from NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and Wiltshire to come-up with my guestimate of 70% or 80%. Since you challenged (-g-) my guestimate, I did some extra work (my invoice is in the mail, -g-) to prove that my guestimate is correct.

NYSE: 3,047 (end of 97) @ $11.8 trillion Today it will be about $14 tril (~20% in 98)
nyse.com

Nasdaq: 5,126 (Nov 98) $2.32 trillion
nasdaq.com
Amex: 900 (Nov 98) @ 0.15 trillion nasdaq.com

NYSE, NASDUNG and Amex combined market cap = 14+2.32+0.15 = 16.47 trillion (my estimate)

Wiltshire 5000 Mix (end of 98): wilshire.com
NYSE: 2,008 27.75% 79.19% of 12.6 trillion or 9.95 trillion (= ~70% of NYSE cap)
Nasdaq: 4,652 64.32% 19.89% of 12.6 trillion or about $1.2 trillion (= ~48% of NASDAQ cap)
Amex: 574 7.93% 0.92% of 12.6 trillion or about 0.012 trillion.

$12.6 trillion (Wiltshire) of $16.47 trillion (NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX) is about 76%. However, the correct thing to do is to get a market-cap weighted ratio of Wiltshire, which will be skewed more towards NYSE (i.e. 80%.) I said in my earlier note that it would be about 70% but used 80% (wiltshire to total marketcap) to come-up with stock valuation at 180% of GDP. In fact it is more like 190%. Well, sue me! -g-
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