Carl, Bang Bang - You're Dead
John Murphy would disagree with you. In Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets (page 397), he states:
"The most commonly used numbers in retracement analysis are 61.8% (usually rounded off to 62%), 38%, and 50%. Remember from Chapter 4 that markets usually retrace previous moves by certain predictable percentages -- the best known ones being 33%, 50%, and 67%. The Fibonacci sequence refines those numbers a bit further. In a strong trend, a minimum retracement is usually around 38%. In a weaker trend, the maximum percentage retracement is usually 62%."
You see, when Bill pushed me screaming and kicking into the TA world about a year and a half ago, I took on the issue to the same degree as everything else in my life. Until the OEX breaks 600, I consider this just a normal market adjustment in a not unusual trading range. I'm not a bear or a bull, just out to make money.
BWDIK and all other disclaimers.
Berney |
