The Peabody Mini-Report: 2/09/99
Profit-taking should not be a surprise to readers of Mr. P!
The Peabody Mini-Report: 2/02/99
www3.techstocks.com
The Peabody Report: 1/31/99
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Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Today's PFE Stats:
Major PFE and Pharma profit-taking (AMGN:-5.56, MRK:-4.50, BMY:-3.06) with most of the action in the last hour. Low volume indicates that profit-taking will continue. How deep is my Valley?
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 9,133, -158.08 (-1.70%)
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 125 1/4 at 16:43
Change: Down 6 1/8 (-4.66%)
High: 130 5/8 at 9:37
Low: 125 at 16:01
Open: 130
Previous Close: 131 3/8 on 2/8
Volume: 2,606,200 Note: Low volume not indicative of a Valley
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,469,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000
52-Week High: 134.62
52-Week Low: 79.93
Beta: 1.02
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 49.1
EPS: 2.55
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The Peabody Model
Short-Term PFE Trend: PFE will Continue to Reverse and Move Lower
-A new pending Peabody Valley of 125.00 (-7.1% Valley) was set today on low volume.
-The Peabody Peak of 134.63 set just last week has been confirmed.
Target Peabody Valley: One of the findings of the Peabody Model has once again been confirmed that profit-taking almost always occurs near a Peabody Peak. Accordingly, the Model predicts that PFE will continue to reverse and head lower to a Peabody Valley of 118.66 (-5.3%) by Thursday, 2/11/99.
Target Peabody Peak: If the model is wrong and PFE heads higher, the target Peabody Peak is 139.37 (+11.3%) by 2/22/99.
Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 9,133, the predicted PFE price is 118.13...... Accordingly, PFE is 6.0% overpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends....indicative that a deeper Valley is approaching.
Da Short-term Gut Feel: It is simply amazing how consistent PFE price patterns are over the last three years. Hit the high, retreat, go higher, retreat, and then set a brand new high. Be very alert for a buying opportunity during the remainder of this week...particularly when PFE sinks below 120......Now stop and think...last year 120 seemed unattainable for the whole year...Now ...120 seems like that a good buying opportunity.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $110 to $120 (2/02/99)
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The Peabody Portfolio Stats:
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,500
Average PFE purchase price: $68.29
Annualized return: 78.7%
Current return: 83.4%
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 200
Average PFE purchase price: $113.63
Annualized return: 131.6%
Current return: 10.2%
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Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 2/09/99
Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90.
The columns include the following data:
- PFE prices
- % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak
- predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model
- difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price .
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................................................................................ Predicted
.........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff
...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/
Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual
1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5%
2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0%
3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7%
4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3%
5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9%
6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2%
7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4%
8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2%
9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4%
10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7%
11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4%
12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5%
13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2%
14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1%
15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1%
16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2%
17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1%
18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9%
19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7%
20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1%
21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8%
22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6%
23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7%
24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1%
25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9%
26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9%
27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8%
28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0%
29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7%
30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7%
31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0%
32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7%
33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9%
34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6%
35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1%
36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6%
37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8%
38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9%
39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4%
40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1%
41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8%
42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1%
43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5%
44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6%
45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6%
46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0%
47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4%
48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9%
49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1%
50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0%
51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6%
52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3%
53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5%
54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6%
55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8%
56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2%
57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4%
58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0%
59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2%
60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6%
61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5%
62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6%
63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4%
64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7%
65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9%
66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7%
67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7%
68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6%
69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6%
70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8%
71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1%
72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3%
73....Peak*....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1%
72....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%........7.....0.
........*Pending
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Average..Peak (1999) N=1..............+22.9%.....21.............5
Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3
Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7
Average..Peak (90-99) N=37...........+28.3%.....64 ............4
Average..Valley (1999) N= 2 ......... -11.1%......10 .............2
Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3
Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2
Average..Valley (90-99) N=37 .........-14.2%.....29 .............6 |
