bgg, yes I've seen some of those numbers, and the numbers
that CSCO reported after their last earnings.
I reference to your last post and this post, I think the
thing to do is to break down the numbers and compare them
point by point.
But, to be honest, I am highly suspicious of CSCO's numbers.
Just my opinion, but I feel a lot of it is artificial. Especially
when they start talking about Cable Modems, Gigabit Ethernet,
and a few others.
The SM&E and consumer network sector numbers just don't jive
with me. I'm wondering if CSCO is outsourcing a lot of this
stuff and claiming it as revenues on their part.
Even, if the numbers are not too far off, I'm mostly interested
in seeing the growth rate of COMS anyways. I think that some of
the new markets that COMS is going into, that are being developed,
(consumer, cable, xdsl, sme, wireless, etc)
will have plenty of business for all (and I have doubts how
CSCO will protect margin erosion; probably as you say, they will outsource many parts, but they do so with the main intention
of adding a higher-end product to the sale; but again, how do they fiddle with the numbers?)
So, bottom line, I think we all need to get the "hard data"
from each company and look at the numbers. Hard work, but I think it will resolve a lot of disagreements we have.
Another thing: if COMS can maintain a good market share in
the same product as CSCO, then IMO, CSCO won't be able to
cut its prices nearly as well as COMS. That's why I'm in
COMS partly. I think they can carve themselves out a good niche
in the network sector and offer low-cost and quality products
better than anybody else.
Also: yes, COMS does compete with CSCO in the enterprise, but
not full force. So, I disagree with you there. Yes, I think
Eric B. wants to get there somehow, but it's not part of the
main strategy at the moment. The idea is eventually to get
CSCO into a price war and still offer quality end-to-end solution.
The distribution channel is working very hard in areas of
training, knowledge, and support. I think this is better for
networkers than having a constant in-house support staff.
Also, re: online sales. COMS has the channel to incorporate
this into the system. Channel dynamics are changing drastically
from my understanding. They are helping to cut costs, provide
better high quality support at all levels...so a good rapport
with a good channel can still be a winning strategy. And,
online sales is a necessary prerequisite to cut sales, but not
all that easy to implement, but fortunately COMS is just about
set up for it. So, advantage for CSCO, and advantage
for COMS. That's my point.
JMO.
joe |
