Jay, what you're able to see now is just "eye candy." I'd disagree on your timeframe of this heating up late this year, and also disagree on fat pipe subscribers hitting critical mass in that timeframe (but we're using vague terms for our measure so it doesn't mean much).
As for the broadband content, far too many content protection and security issues need to be agreed on and de-facto-ized by too large a group for it to happen that quickly. Far too many. Lots of activity in that area, but don't confuse activity for achievement.
As for critical mass on fat pipe subscribers, it will coincide with critical mass for 'digital television.' Only then will it reach 'must have' status for mainstream mom and pop. This is a big expense, as are the monthly subscription fees or on-demand fees for the services.
By the time we're in the second or third generation of digital media devices (what we now call digital TV's), and the bugs are minimal, and competition/innovation drives the cost of an entry-level DMD into the 300 dollar range, and the content protection and security issues are wrung out, and the service sector has consolidated and stabilized, and the applications have been honed through trials and pilot programs, and the supply chains have crystallized, and, and,....then we make the run at mainstream.
Mainstream implies stability in the products and services so that the herd is absolutely comfortable with it. We're at least 3 years away from that. Many, many 6-12 month trials, re-trials and test markets of disjoint products need to come together yet (before we have any idea what the "complete" product even is).
What happens between now and then? Disappointment, confusion, and expectations for the long term being lowered too far.
dh |
