Joe -- First, I'm quoting numbers from published industry analyst reports: www.delloro.com. This is the website of the Dell'Oro Group. This industry firm publishes quarterly reports on all market share for data networking. The numbers are independent. Second, no company would be foolish enough to quote false market share figures on an earnings conference call. Talk about illegal. Any marketshare data that Cisco quotes in their conference calls are validated third-party marketshare data from recognized industry sources. Companies may talk hype to the Street, but the NEVER cite market share figures unless they are validated by third party sources. Doing otherwise would be the quickest way to get the SEC on your ass.
BTW - According to the latest Dell'Oro report, Cisco leads in layer 2 Gigabit port shipments.
All networking companies report their shipments to these analyst firms. Then, the firms compare the data with financial results and appropriate adjustments are made. You can't access the reports without an account, but I think you can access the press releases. Another one is International Data Corporation. (IDC). These reports are how the Street gauges market share, along with financial results. It's really the accepted (and only real way) to get market share visibility.
BTW -- if you don't believe me that Dell'Oro numbers are commonly recognized as a reliable market share source, I invite anyone on this thread who works for 3Com to tell us otherwise.
I guess we agree on the low-end. COMS will have the upper hand over its competition .. and they will enjoy good growth because of that. They just won't enjoy the insane growth that can potentially come with the future telco and ISP market. If you're in CSCO and COMS long term, you're golden. If you have more in CSCO than in COMS, you're even more golden. JMO!
BTW -- I think you've done a good job learning about this industry, and have a good understanding of COMS. I'm really not trying to be condescending here. COMS is a good company, that has good positioning in a great market. I'm just saying that there are better investment today in this industry. Either way you make money long term. |
