John,
Thanks for the helpful commentary. This stock is still a puzzle for me. My two cents worth of logic makes me think that the CDSI technology is worth zero to the company for the only reason that it is a low-cost solution and is useless in the developed world that seeks the highest-cost solution.
I asked Charles Goyette that I didn't think their product was marketable to any US company and he agreed point blank. I also asked, just in case, if ALAN had any leads it was pursuing here in the US and he said "NO" immediately, without hesitation. He confirmed the suspicion that "US and European companies don't want the lowest cost solution, they wanted the BEST solution." (emphasis mine) Charles' comment about "best" told me everything I need to know about their CDSI business and I suspect it should tell you enough too. China may be a market, but I look at their environmental division as a parasite on a perfectly good FRY GUY division. Again, this is my two cents logic, but it has served me well.
I abhor hype and hot air over future prospects. I believe in rational and logical estimates for future performance - which tells me to be nervous, especially when I hear about how LAVISH THEIR CORPORATE OFFICES ARE! I haven't personally been there, but I understand that is the case. If these guys are marketeers and showmen, then we will all be "Waiting for Godot."
Good luck and don't put too many eggs in this basket. I have 5% of investable funds in this one, but I'm still nervous. Everyone has their own sleeping point, but just one important point to keep in mind. Walmart and Home Depot went up significantly WELL AFTER THEY HAD POSTED SEVERAL QUARTERS OF FANTASTIC EARNINGS GROWTH. If this ALAN stock is going to be worth anything, you better have enough cash and enough patience to wait it out and allow you to buy more when the numbers start coming in better than expectations and the price of ALAN is north of $2/sh and $3/sh and $4/sh and $5/sh. Overinvest now and you wont be patient enough for this story to pan out. Go slow. If its going to be worth something someday, its going to take time.
Wishing us all good fortune,
Tim West
7:28 am, Thurs Feb 6th
The whole world loves fried food... have you been to the UK or Japan? |
