Bob, you're the greatest optimist I've ever met. A guy that controls 10% of the float needs to sell it all, and you say it's great news!
Although there are both positive and negative factors to any stock, in this case all the positive things are potential events that might happen in the future, whereas all the negative things are definitely real today. Here's how I see it:
Negative:
1. Today, a bankrupt company owns 10% of the float, and all of these shares are being sold by the bankruptcy trustee.
2. Because of the low daily trading volume, it will take from 6 months to a year for all of these shares to be sold off.
3. Today, Pennsylvania has just approved gambling at racetracks, riverboats, and bars.
4. Today, 1/3 of Mountaineer's customer's are daytrippers from Pennsylvania. If they all decide to stay home and gamble in Pennsylvania, Mountaineer's profits will turn into losses. Overhead expenses will hold constant when revenues drop.
5. Today, the Las Vegas casino is still under construction, with an estimated 2 months to go.
6. Today, Mountaineer does not have a Nevada gaming license. When the casino is finished, another company will reap all the profits. Nevada is very tough on companies with past organized crime connections.
Positive:
1. Maybe in a couple months, the Nevada construction will be completed and will stop bleeding the profits from West Virginia.
2. Maybe in about a year, Mountaineer will get a Nevada license.
3. Maybe in a few years, West Virginia |
