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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Alex Fleming who wrote (55)2/6/1997 9:54:00 AM
From: FMK   of 27311
 
Alex, Remember when you were finding it harder to suppress your enthusiasm? For me, The recent negative post triggered some re-assessmenent of the situation. Some key thoughts:

1-After being "back to the drawing board" for the last 2+ years and having tasted their share of crow. I'm convinced they have it right this time or they wouldn't be starting their 4 production lines.

2-Considering the above, I would estimate their odds of having a workable product to be about 5x greater than when they were going into production the previous time and the stock price ran to $25. After so much more R&D, this time it should be like starting with Windows 95 in place of a prior version.

3-The current environment of having been very "low profile" with news releases and a greater need to prove themselves has created an opportunity, for the short term, to acquire the stock at bargain basement prices.

4-I thought that it may dip as low as $6 but picked up more at 6 3/8 yesterday because I believe its days around $6 are numbered.

5-Regarding timing of our earnings projections- it has helped us (who don't have analysts) to get a better picture of what to expect from the production lines that are going into operation- while many fund mgr's are waiting for analyst's ratings.

6-Remember that the production line information came from company spokesmen. Why would they mis-represent anything at this point? They were only answering questions about what they were doing.

7-I believe we are getting close to more contract announcements- anyone who sells out on a run-up hoping to buy back lower takes a real risk of being left behind.

As you can tell, I'm feeling as positive as ever!

Comments are welcome.

Regards
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