Richard,
What may be confusing the issue on market share is that, where Apple is concerned, we are measuring the company's future along 2 product lines and projecting a limited growth. The two are iMacs and other Macs. We have a quasi known value for the iMacs based on an ill defined contract with a clone maker composited with a history of unit sales. That is not much to base a projection upon.
The real world dynamic for AAPL over the next 24 months will include a consumer laptop, processor upgrades, OS X, new product roll outs, and potential surprises that have not even been hinted at yet.
And why is 5% market share such an all important two year target? The company does not sink or swim based on that target. 4.5% market share by end of year 2000 would look good to investors. %5 would look better. 6% better yet.
The avenue of outsourcing will give Apple leverage to achieve those numbers. It is essentially Apple allowing clones under the Apple umbrella and control, supporting a favorable ROI on OS development and maintenance.
You are right about the numbers dynamics being huge. It is a huge market. That, however, is to Apple's advantage. It would be extremely difficult to take water away from the giant in the bath tub. In his lake, he can only monitor one shore at a time.
HerbVic |
