Unc,
Thanks for the data retrospective. Does anyone recall what the sentiment would have been leading into earnings last year? For example, this year I believe there is some nervousness about earnings being "not the same" because last quarter was supposedly "light". Was the situation the same last year? How did the third quarter last year, and maybe even the quarter before that set the stage for fourth quarter last year? Looking at the numbers you posted, it's pretty much a straight ramp up from 88 to 139, but this year we've got this little hesitation pullback. Last year about this time, the market was going into full swing from a rally that started in late January, coming out of the second wave of "Asian Flu". This year, the market rallied earlier and we're entering a correction/distribution phase, with a potential second wave of Montezuma's revenge looming.
The data are interesting, but there's so much more to the story. I believe that DELL had gotten a little ahead of itself, as had the rest of the market, but it appears now that a sufficient penance has been paid for that little transgression. I also believe what Voltaire has been saying since the day after earnings last quarter, or whenever it was he first arrived here, that Mikey & Co. are basically going to clam up (which they have for the most part) and put the Asshook Kumars of the world in their place by exceeding estimates by .03 or more. Kumar's days of remaining credibility munber about 6. Furthermore, I think it was Don that posted all of the other clues pointing to a DELL blowout (MSFT, INTC blowouts among others), so there is little doubt that they will blow the doors off next week. A split might be another matter, since they have not based much at these levels yet. That remains to be seen. Maybe this correction is enough of a "base" to launch from.
At any rate, it sure is fun, isn't it?
Rich |
