Forgive my absence, too disgusted after not being able to sell in the black the day after earnings (I was on a business trip and didn't want to place an un-monitored sell order....). At any rate, I've been perusing the First Call earnings estimates and found a couple of interesting things.
First, there are three February revisions for TDFX. These are interesting in that they are going all over the place. Buckingham revised downward for 1Q99, but upward for the remaining three, with a net increase of 0.15 to 1.00 for FY99. Opco also revised FY99 up 0.03 to 0.62 for FY99. This was the only number listed; there is no quarterly breakout. Finally. Montgomery shows some quarterly up revisions and some down revisions, but the numbers I'm looking at don't add up, so I'm taking that one with a grain of salt. At any rate, the quarterlies add up to a net unchanged at 0.25 for FY99, by far the lowest estimate (next closest is 0.56).
Second, there are now some 2000 estimates out from Buckingham, Fahnestock, and Montgomery. They range from 0.95 to 1.90 with a mean of 1.33. From the overall look of things, I'd say these guys think that the TDFX-STBI synergy will kick in about 3Q99.
Finally, I noticed that STBI is slated to report 1Q99 earnings on about 2/22. This will happen since there's no way the merger will be complete by then. I wonder what the effect would be on TDFX's price if STBI beat the consensus by a significant amount. Do the analysts treat the two as a merged company yet or are they still discounting everything until it's a done deal?
Returning to my disgusted lurking....
Piranha |
