StockOperator,
Good post, thanks.
It is good for the thread to get various opininions with details - such will just stimulate more thought.
Its important that those reading this thread, fully understand the time frame, which will vary from intraday to long-term holders. What is important to a day trader, may not be important to the long-term holder. As you previously mentioned, chasing the ripples is not important to you since you are a longer-term investor. On the other side the long-term trend does not mean much to me, but what is important for me is the short-term reversal points and short-term trend (1-5 days). By the time we get confirmation of the long-term trend I will probably have already made numerous trades in both directions playing options. So I really dont care what the longer-term trend is.
I mention this in detail since I do get response where some are trying to apply my short-term reversals for longer-term picture.
As for the immediate future, I feel the key to watch is the market internals, especially the NEW HIGHs/LOWs. If the NEW LOWs start getting above 100 consistently, thats a real sign of trouble. On the other hand if the NEW HIGHs were to get back above 100 consistently that would be a good sign that the BULL is back in force, unfortunately I dont see that happening, since in the runup from the OCT LOWs the new higs were not able to stay above 100 for more than a few days. If it couldnt do it during a 2000+ plus rally, it dont look good now. If the NEW HIGHs/LOWs, just stay in the current range I feel that the market will just continue what its doing, and that is basicly range-trade.
seeya |
