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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: SE who wrote (15245)2/11/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Scott,

IMO - These markets have been driven by your clients IRA, the speculative
nature of our generations interest in stock market profits and the
flow from international capital to a strong market.

Money is these markets....Index's and there respective stocks have been
getting the money....Nothing in this environment appears to suggest that
we have entered a systemic long-term Bear Market.

However this market has been banging up against 9,500 for weeks with
little Good News. It has weathered International Monetary complications
and economic insecurities. But the Economic Picture that got us to these
market levels remains intact. This suggests the markets will go up.

So....if earnings decline, interest rates rise, International money slows,
economic picture (jobs, etc.)slows from natural cyclical forces...then the
markets should correct to reflect this deterioration.
Market Indexes might see Oct. Lows.

But without a solid - Significant Event - to end the M$ney Flow there
are only minor corrections and pauses around the next corner.

What could change my mind:
1-Congress comes back and legislates a series of projectionist polices
and changes the climate towards international merger.
2-Interest rates accelerate out of a natural demand cycle from some event.
3-Collapse of a major sector of this countries financial system.
My guess here is the Insurance Industry....who play the same games as LTCM.
4-Significant War or a series of natural disasters.

I take Last Oct.'s Index Lows as the measure of a broken bull from 1987.
Chip
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