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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1233)2/11/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
Henry,

Do we still agree in general terms to the following on Bear Markets:

IMO - Todays markets have been driven by IRA's, the speculative nature
of our generations interest in stock market profits and the flow of
international capital to a strong market and all combined with the
access to these markets through electronic technology.

Money is these markets....Index's and their respective stocks have been
getting the major portion of this money....Nothing in todays environment
appears to suggest that we have entered a systemic long-term Bear Market.

However these markets have been banging up against 9,500 for weeks with
little Good News. They have weathered International Monetary complications
and economic insecurities. But the Economic Picture that got us to these
market levels remains intact. This suggests the markets will go up.

So....if earnings decline, interest rates rise, International money flows
decline, the economic picture(jobs, etc.) changes from natural cyclical
forces...then the markets should correct to reflect this deterioration.
Market Indexes might see Oct. lows (DJIA 7,500).

But without a solid - Significant Event - to end the M$ney Flow there
are only minor corrections and pauses around the next corner.

What could change my mind:
1-Congress comes back and legislates a series of projectionist polices
and changes the climate towards international cooperation.
2-Interest rates accelerate out of a natural cycle from some event.
3-Collapse of a major sector of this countries financial system.
My guess here is the Insurance Industry....who play the same games as LTCM.
4-Significant War or a series of natural disasters.

I take Last Oct.'s Index Lows as the measure of a broken bull from 1987
Do you have a higher DJIA as a measure of a Broken Bull Run?
Chip
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