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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (37273)2/11/1999 9:32:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
BigBull,
I fully agree! Almost all comments have been that the API numbers are wrong because it does not make sense that there would be such a big decline. It would only not make sense if one believes the institutional analysts (who formed the oil "glut" consensus in the press) forecasting the 3 million Bbl rise as being the gospel. I do not have any faith in these "analysts." Who knows which numbers are correct - but as you correctly pointed out the analysts were way wrong whether one believes the DOE or the API figures. The inventories are either 3 to 10 million Bbl lower than forecast.

The drop in distillates (API and DOE are in agreement here) is especially interesting because the weather was much warmer than usual. La Nina is forecasted to result in a winter that starts warm, lasts significantly longer and is much colder at the end. The refiners have been reducing their output and if the weather forecasters are correct, the heating oil inventory "glut" will disappear very rapidly.
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