The following Dataquest numbers were posted by Neil in the Fibre Channel Future thread. Note that as Ken H alluded to in the call, the industry numbers quoted are in "End User" dollars. Therefore, I think if one assumes a 100% mark-up ( 50% gross margin )by the OEM, then one can take the Dataquest numbers and divide by 2 to arrive at sales dollars for the manufacturers (ie, Ancor, Brocade, Emulex, Vixel, Gadzoox,etc..). Using the numbers below, one can infer total Fibre Channel switch manufacturer revenues at roughly $33 million in 1998, $79 million in 1999 and $188 million in Yr 2000. Therefore, IF Ancor won 1/3 - 1/2 of the OEM switch business, then Ancor potential revenues could range between $63 - 94 million next year,IF you believe the Dataquest forecasts.
To: Douglas Nordgren (1004 )
From: Neil S
Wednesday, Jan 27 1999 2:45PM ET
Reply # of 1058
Market Size:
Dataquest analyst Tom Lahive writing in the Jan. InfoStor
OEM revenue by SAN component type ($millions)
YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ~CAGR
Hubs 54 89 190 349 490 75%
Switches 65 158 376 654 982 97%
Directors 252 257 270 281 286 3%
Total 371 504 836 1284 1758 47%
Source: Dataquest [Tom Lahive]/ InfoStor Jan. 99
Note: Edited to include only years 98-02.
Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR] Estimate added by me not author. [Sorry to
lazy to calculate it precisely]
Neil
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