Michael,
Here's the data I've seen:
The net of it is according to Dataquest, Dell's unit market share is up sharply year to year, but down marginally in Q4 over Q3, due to seasonal factors (greater percentage of units sold in Q4 are consumer).
Nothing here supports Dell falling off a cliff Q4.
However, *industrywide*, there's support for at least a significant slowing of revenue growth for 1998, and if the ASP's are 11% below 1997, then with units for the year up 12%, revenue growth was negative.
<<Such figures tell only a partial story, since industry researchers track
shipments and not revenues. While shipments continue to grow in healthy
double-digits, tumbling computer prices have cut into revenue growth,
not to mention profitability for some struggling computer makers.>>
Peter
dailynews.yahoo.com
Sunday January 31 1:47 AM ET
World Fourth-Quarter PC Shipments Rebound--Surveys
By Eric Auchard
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Worldwide personal computer shipments picked up
their pace in the fourth-quarter to grow 15 percent versus the
fourth-quarter a year-ago, salvaging a year that began with an inventory
glut and struggled with economic turmoil in many emerging markets,
market researchers said.
By contrast, worldwide PC market shipments rose 12 percent for the 1998
year as a whole compared to 1997, according to survey data to be
released Friday by market researcher firm International Data Corp. (IDC)
of Framingham, Mass.
Fourth quarter results were fueled by traditional holiday consumer
buying and heavy Internet demand in the United States and Europe, found
the IDC report, and a second, separate survey by research firm
Dataquest, also to be released Friday.
Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE:CPQ - news) remained the No. 1 PC supplier,
both in the world and in the United States, while IBM clung to the No. 2
world rank despite rapid gains by fast-growing Dell Computer Corp.
(Nasdaq:DELL - news) At its torrid pace, Dell could soon overtake PC
pioneer IBM in the No. 2 spot worldwide, IDC's data showed.
For the full year, worldwide PC factory shipments totaled 90 million,
with Compaq accounting for 13.2 million of the PC units, IDC said.
''It was a big fourth quarter, with 27 million units shipped
worldwide,'' said John Brown, manager of IDC's PC market research group.
''We'd originally forecast 12 percent growth, but a surge in the U.S.
and Europe propelled year-to-year growth in the fourth quarter to 15
percent,'' he said.
In the United States, Compaq's market share dropped slightly to 18.1
percent from the 19 percent share it held in fourth quarter 1997, while
Dell sustained its momentum, rising to a 12.8 percent share from 9.9
percent a year-ago.
Gateway edged ahead of IBM to take No. 3 spot in the United States, both
with 9.1 percent of the market, while Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HWP -
news) was No. 5 with 7.2 percent.
Underlying the shifting market were sharply contrasting growth rates, as
Compaq grew between 16 and 17 percent both in the U.S. and worldwide
from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, while Dell gained 56 percent in
the same timeframe.
Such figures tell only a partial story, since industry researchers track
shipments and not revenues. While shipments continue to grow in healthy
double-digits, tumbling computer prices have cut into revenue growth,
not to mention profitability for some struggling computer makers.
Still, healthy market share gains were posted by the world's top brands,
with the top four -- Compaq, IBM, Dell and H-P, in that order --
accounting for 42.5 percent of all PCs shipped.
The exception was No. 5 Packard Bell NEC, which has continued to see its
position slide as year-to-year growth slipped 3 percent. Its worldwide
market share stands only a fraction of a percent ahead of fast-growing
No. 6 PC maker Gateway Inc, according to Dataquest.
U.S. fourth-quarter unit shipments grew 21 percent, versus forecasted
growth of 18 percent, amid a surge in demand for Internet connections at
home and sharply falling PC prices, IDC said. Western Europe grew 19
percent.
The United States and European PC markets accounted for nearly 65
percent of 1998 PC shipments, Dataquest estimated.
''It appears that over half of U.S. households now have a PC,''
Dataquest analyst Bill Schaub said, adding that his firm's surveys show
that up to 37 percent of the U.S. now has an Internet connection.
''Interest in the Internet is driving a lot of demand in the home
market.''
Japan's growth was flat and Asia's was slightly negative, while Eastern
European PC shipments fell about 20 percent year-to-year, IDC's Brown
said.
In a statement, Compaq focused on its sequential gains in the
fourth-quarter versus the third-quarter of 1998.
Compaq's global market share grew to 15.4 percent, up from the third
quarter's 14.4 percent. Compaq's U.S. market share grew to 18.1 percent
from 15.8 percent in the third-quarter, while Dell's share slipped to
12.8 percent from 14.1 percent.
Compaq's gains reflect its strength as the leading supplier of consumer
PCs during the seasonally strong holiday sales season, and Dell's minor
role in the consumer market compared to its focus on the corporate
market, analysts said.
Schaub said it was more meaningful to compare fourth quarter results
with the year-ago fourth quarter, which eliminates some of seasonal
differences.
''Compaq gets an extra consumer bump that Dell doesn't get in the fourth
quarter but don't let that obscure the fact that Dell is basically right
on their tail,'' Dataquest's Schaub said |
