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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1238)2/11/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (3) of 3536
 
Chip,

I basically agree with that.

I believe many of the factors that have powered this market will continue. The technological changes in the economy will continue to be an important area of leadership for the US. Inflation will remain tame as well as with technological change being a major contributor. That will help keep interest rates from being a major problem. Boomer investment and international flows will also be a long term positive.

However the business cycle has not been repealed. I suspect a slow down in the US at some point in the not to distant future will give the market pause. In addition if we do see a stabilization in the emerging markets we are likely to see some money flows to these markets as investors try to pick the bottom. I don't believe this will translate into a long term bear but could generate a nasty correction. 7400 has been a number I have had in mind.

But the longer term bullish scenario remains intact and that would probably just be an opportunity to pick up good quality equities.

I would agree that the four items you mention would cause a sharp contraction. I just thing that each is just a very minor possibility. But one most always keep an eye on the long shots.

Henry
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