Peter, ASPs were down 20% for the nations largest retailer, CompUSA. I doubt they did better for lesser players on the consumer side, like Tandy, who had all kinds of problems. And they certainly didn't do better on the business side, where seasonal factors and the slowdown in buying is obvious. And the problems at every co. in the distribution channel are from the business side, not the consumer side.
When is the last time you heard Dell claim seasonal problems for losing market share? And, remember, Compaq lost market share 4Q from 4Q 1997. And they dominate the low-priced consumer side. So, Dell's story is a cop-out and Compaq isn't telling the truth in its stories. So, what else is new? <G>
Whether Dell falls off a cliff depends upon your definition of a cliff. If you realize that this dog is selling at over 100 times 12 month eps, then they don't have to have a horrible up 30% quarter to fall off a cliff. Anything less than 70% growth is a disaster in the real world and less than 50% growth will be deadly in the current tulipmania. I suspect they hit the 50% target, but, after reading the fine print, we find out they faked it as they did last quarter. Eventually, even brain dead bulls catch on to accounting tricks.
BTW, back to Dell's seasonal scam, isn't January the number one ordering month for business boxes? That is when cos. get their new budgets.
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