John:
Wow! Good thing you're not prone to arrogance.
"Trending in the right direction',.....have you looked at treasuries outstanding, (never mind the heavy selling of same going on), current account deficit, trade imbalance, liquidity piling up at the doors, Freddie and Fannie, and the already significant "U.S.A. borrowing premium" of 1 3/4% ? Please cite stats that suggest this "right direction" trend. I'm all ears.
World's largest debtor nation,...."Relevant trend is extremely positive going forward" and "the important thing is the relevant trend".
About the only way I can fathom this argument, is on the basis that many other nations are falling down the deflationary toilet bowl at a faster rate (Russia for instance). Love to hear more on this as sovereign defaults have been known to create a bit of a bother for banks.
What are the odds of even a tiny fraction of the general public converting market-derived "savings" into cash? Savings implies liquidity. When they need or want it, the phones are off the hook.
I'm glad to learn that "the odds (of a 50% correction) are next to nil".
Phew! What a relief. I had some foolish worries about PEs being just a tad high. Last year was a "bear market"? They have been known in the past to last a bit longer than a few weeks.
With respect to employee options, dig a bit into the whole situation. I'd recommend MSFT as a good place to start the educational process. Shareholders who are paying attention seem to be worried about the disappearance of shareholder equity. Others worry about "hedge fund type activities" where they thought they owned a chip company or a software enterprise.
Better marshal some arguments about productivity when you come back to the topic. There has been a bit of info around that suggests the opposite.
Good to have someone like yourself providing well reasoned, fully backed comments, as opposed to those "limited truths" found here on occasion.
Best, Earlie |
