Re: The days of AMD sneaking up on Intel and being "nice" are long over....
Hence the days on Intel being "nice" to AMD are similarly gone. Though I don't agree that Intel is the ogre and all around bastard as it is sometimes portrayed here, deliberately provoking it with a stick in the eye doesn't seem to me like a shrewd idea. AMD picked a fight and swung from the heels. When AMD got hit with a counterpunch it certainly didn't like how it felt. Your suggestion to provoke Intel further is an interesting approach that could lead to yet another staggering punch. AMD would then be following the fabulously successful Saddam Husein school of combat - otherwise known as "INCOMING - EVERYBODY DUCK".
There are times to be bold and agressive. There are times to be accomodating and to bide one's time. To everything there is a season, etc. I believe, on that scale, AMD's timing is lousy. Their finances are problematical and they started a slugging contest with one arm tied behind their back (tied in good part by their own performance or lack thereof, by the way) with the local heavyweight champ. They have now placed themselves in the position where their only viable option is to kill the heavyweight or get beaten to death themselves. If you think that's good strategic positioning, be my guest. But whether you think it's good or bad strategy, they walked into this mess purposefully with their eyes wide open and their intent obvious. They may pull it off, but they are certainly gonna have some industrial strength crisis periods along the way. That's why their stock is so volatile, so low and yet they have so much potential. So AMD investors get not only some stock certificates but a "Perils of Pauline" soap opera to watch as well.
1) Financial situation from hell.
2) History of lousy execution.
3) Late again with K6-3
4) Scary triple threat for K7 - new product, process, technology
5) Management strategic and operational smarts
None of the above are plusses for AMD.
By the way, every time you borrow your way out of the proximate danger there is a financial price to pay on the other end. Do it enough times and it gets much tougher to borrow again. And you have all that accumulated debt to pay back eventually.
The only thing going for AMD that I can see at this point is that the K-7 looks pretty good on paper. However, so did the K-6 when it was on paper and the Celeron was a gleam in the eye of Intel marketing.
By the way, check out Tom the Uberclockmeister's pages. I find them absolutely fascinating lately. You can guess why. I particularly like where the K6 falls on those charts. And I do mean falls. If your an AMD investor it ain't pretty.
Yeah, the CPUID was handled badly, PRwise. I'm actually looking to buy one of the early PIIIs if the first batch are "firesaled" due to the hysteria (which seems to have subsided). If not, I'm looking hard at a celeron 433. Great performance, great price - Check out Tom's - it's a fabulous read.
Good investing,
Burt
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