I would like to thank everyone for all the fear and doom.
Yesterday, my best short-term market indicator flashed me a buy signal yesterday, and I switched out of Dell and into XCIT. Today, Dell was up 4 7/8 while XCIT was up 15 3/8 (I am holding ATHM long term).
My short-term indicator is very easy to describe, but very difficult to measure…. Its PANIC!
Yes, whenever I start thinking about calling it quits, taking a long vacation from trading, loosing sleep, and I catch myself having long discussions with my wife regarding my career, I know its time, I grit my teeth, take a big breath and…. BUY!
It's taken me 12 years of conditioning to fine-tune this unnatural reflex, but it has worked for the last three last 3 years, with spectacular results! (Yes, past results does not indicate future...)
I have also noticed something on this tread which I find very amusing… I'm not alone. So here is another trading indicator if you haven't developed the unnatural panic buying reflex...
The SI thread indicator:
Hold:
Lots of analysis of recent news events and technology trends, friendly discussions, sock is doing OK
Caution:
Most posts are positive as people try to find all the reasons why the stock is in a clear uptrend, and ahhaha seems unusually quite?
Sell:
Nearly all the posts are positive, people anticipating early retirement, newcomers asking, "when can I join the party? Others take notice that ahhaha hasn't posted anything for awhile.
Wait:
Number of posts/day drop and the stock is trending downward.
Wait a little longer:
Number of posts/day increases, but this is almost entirely due to ahhaha coming back to the thread. Topics switch for what is right to what may be going wrong (xDSL, AOL, ATHM customer complaints) and other FUD topics.
Buy:
Thread starts to resemble a "food fight" between ahhaha and a number of new members, with the old timers occasionally getting into the cross fire. No comments on positive news.
Hold
Stock recovers, people reflect on the meaning of trading, no one is throwing anything at ahhaha, and life is good again.
This pattern seems to have occurred at least three times in the past four months. I haven't gone back and confirmed these observations, so my recommendation is to take all of this with a grain of salt, a slice of lime, and a shot of Tequila!
Life is good again
t.s. |
