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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: VLAD who wrote (18678)2/11/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: Greg22  Read Replies (4) of 23519
 
VLAD,

The problem I see with the stock price is that no one wants to buy it, even at $2 a share. This is mostly due to the perceptions of Muse you described earlier and the fact that most institutions cannot buy a stock priced under $5. This allows the market makers to lower the ask, and therefore the bid. I am sure there are many institutions that would buy this stock if it were above $5. IMO Bear Sterns knows this,and they will do everything they can to keep the price down and try to ruin a good company so they can make a buck. I might be a little paranoid here, but you saw the Level II window on the day of the conference call. BEST must have sold short 250,000 shares.

The second problem is CS First Boston. These idiots totally ruined a good earnings report by telling Leland what to say. Obviously, CSFB is also interested in keeping the price down to force management to sell the company. This way, CSFB can get a slice of the pie via selling commissions.

Finally, I have reversed my opinion on the marketing partner. There is a substantial cost to waiting. The only reason to wait is if Leland is greater than 90% sure that there will be a black box label. Anything else is a gamble. Viagra will continue to capture what remaining market is left, PCP's will become used to prescribing Viagra, Vivus will continue to suffer the opportunity costs of lost cash flows, and the threat of further competition in the ED market will arise as time passes. Again, if there is a 90% chance or greater of a black box label, then it is worth the wait.

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