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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: Andreas Samson who wrote (18688)	2/12/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (3) of 23519

Andreas, I feel very strongly that there has been significant manipulation in the share price of Vivus. You tend to make everything look black and white in your statements. If your analogy of script data to stock price was correct, then the current share price of Vivus should be 10 not 2.5. Who on this thread claimed that Viagra doesn't work? I have been here over a year and the only charges in terms of efficacy that I remember was that Pfizer used patients in their trials that were able to have sexual intercourse at least once in the month before entering the Viagra clinic trials whereas Vivus's patients entering their clinical trials were unable to achieve an erection for 3 months before entering their trials. This is fact not fiction. As for the 75% of MUSE patients that were lost, it is incorrect to say they "walked away". They didn't walk away, but instead they decided to take Viagra because no doubt a pill is more convenient than a suppository. You are incorrect to claim that marketing is not an important factor. There have been many patients who tried Viagra and failed and were never offered MUSE as an alternative by the PCP when the initial Viagra script was written. This ED stuff is embarassing enough. To admit that one is impotent is bad enough. To admit that one is impotent AND failed on the "wonder drug" is twice as bad. How many of those patients do you think are going to be brave enough to call their doctor and say "Hey doc I failed on the wonder drug. What else do you have in your bag of tricks?" I doubt very many. There is no denying that Viagra ate or is eating 70 to 75% of MUSE's lunch and I don't think I have read any poster here claim otherwise. The vast majority of patients lost to Viagra are gone for good--a fact that I think all Vivus investors accept. Currently it is not these patients that matter. The question that needs to be asked is how a large pharmaceutical company is going to be able to market MUSE to get the Viagra failures (about 40 to 50%) back to the doctor's office to give MUSE a crack. I don't think it will be an easy task but I do feel that by targeting the over 55 crowd a successful marketing attempt can be launched. We dont need to see 160,000 weekly MUSE scripts for Vivus to thrive. Ten percent of that would IMO be very good for Vivus to become very profitable. If Vivus was able to do 16,000 weekly scripts with no sales force and only 50 field reps calling only on urologists in 1997 and was able to average 16,000 weekly scripts, I see no reason why they can't get back to that level with the marketing/sales force skills of a large pharmaceutical company and the awareness that Pfizer/Viagra have created. As far as your negative statement "people don't want to use MUSE if they can avoid it" goes, the same can be said about needles, pumps and implants yet these products are still being used. In fact I'm sure you can even say that people don't want to use Viagra if they can avoid it. Who wants to have any medical problem?

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