During the oil depression that started in the early 80's, and lasted nearly 10 years, the oil industry was destroyed. La and Texas' economies were at poverty levels, but the rest of the country didn't give a flip. They enjoyed the booming 80's while those in the oil industry lost their jobs and companies disappeared. I witnessed it first hand and didn't like it then any more then than now, but I can tell you that if you expect the government or the population as a whole to come in and save the industry, it isn't going to happen. They can point to the 80's slump and say, "see nothing bad happened to us, (meaning the rest of the country) and nothing bad is going to happen now." They are not going to see any emergency. There is no oil crisis as far as they're concerned. An oil crises is when prices go through the roof, not when they drop. The oil surplus will just have to cure itself. There may be a few gestures, like buying for the SPR, but no white knight. The plus side is that the fundamentals favor a much faster recovery than the 10 years it took last time, but not overnight.
Meanwhile, I think the companies to buy, if you plan to ride it out, are those with the best balance sheets. I think we are seeing this now. Deepwater companies, low debt margins and positive cash flows are going to allow the strong to eat up the weak and be in better positions when the turn finally comes. It's hard to invest for that far down the road. "When you are up to your ass in alligators, it's hard to remember that you're there to drain the swamp."
But that's the way it is. We may be at a bottom, but that doesn't mean near term up movement. I still think it all depends on OPEC. Unless they do a deal, nothing.
Mike from La |
