Symbian seen fending off Microsoft's challenge
By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent
LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp's [MSFT-news] recent ventures into mobile Internet access have worrid its competitors, but experts said on Tuesday the Symbian consortium led by Britain's Psion Plc [PON-news] still holds the inside track.
The presence of Microsoft in the market for devices like advanced mobile phones, palmtop computers and electronic organisers was making investors in competing ventures nervous.
But hand-held computer maker Psion's Symbian consortium is still expected to be a winner. Experts said Microsoft's massive market presence could end up working against it as companies worry about coming under the thumb of one dominant supplier. Microsoft announced on Monday that it and British Telecommunications Plc [BT-news] would develop a range of Internet and corporate data services for cellphone customers in Europe.
The news hammered Psion stock as investors worried that the Symbian consortium with mobile phone makers Nokia Oyj [NOKSa-news] of Finland and Ericsson AB [LMEb-news] of Sweden, and high technology powerhouse Motorola [MOT-news] of the United States would be rolled over by Microsoft and its allies.
Psion stock fell 5.6 percent to 876 pence on Monday but rallied on Tuesday to as high as 927.
Symbian was formed in June 1998 to take advantage of a shift towards accessing the Internet from handheld devices and away from personal computers.
At the time Psion said the number of mobile phone users would surge to more than 600 million by 2002, from 200 million in 1997. So-called wireless information devices would account for 10 to 15 percent of the overall mobile phone market.
Succesful companies will hit the jackpot.
"The outlook for Symbian is awesome. The risks are the announcement you saw yesterday," said Keith Woolcock, senior technology analyst at Nomura International.
Woolcock said Symbian will have its first products on the market later this year. Microsoft was behind in the battle for viable mobile devices.
"That Microsoft/BT deal was 90 percent hype in the sense Microsoft has to try and create the aura of momentum. Right now it only has one phone maker in the world, a small U.S. company called Qualcomm [QCOM-news], and they aren't compatible with GSM which is used in most of the world," said Woolcock.
Other analysts were more cautious about the outlook for Symbian.
One who declined to be named wanted more information from Symbian about its future product plans. The analyst also wondered if the Microsoft/BT announcement was more of a blocking move, rather than one with concrete products and plans.
Adam Daum, senior consultant at the Inteco research organisation, also expressed reservations about Symbian.
Daum said it was possible Symbian consortium members might even eventually jump ship in favour of Microsoft's Windows CE (compact edition) operating system if it catches up with Psion's EPOC.
"Microsoft software is not known as bloatware for nothing. CE just isn't ready yet. But Microsoft is in the game for the long term and it may have made improvements. The point is the members of Symbian will be keeping a close eye on Windows CE. If it's not up to it they will stick with Psion," said Daum.
Daum said companies were also wary of becoming overdependent on one supplier and that could often play in Symbian's favour if technical differences were small.
He had no doubts about the huge market potential.
"The mobile market is expanding very fast. We think there is huge scope not only for expanding the market but expanding the applications. This will hugely expand the shift away from desk top or house bound devices to mobile personal devices and move us into the mass market," Daum said.
As competitors jostle, investors can expect a roller-coaster ride, Nomura analyst Patrick Yau told Reuters Television.
"I think there will be a lot of volatility in the share price of Psion and even Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola. Obviously Microsoft is itching to get back into this arena and we can expect more news and more volatility in time to come," Yau said. |
