DVD or SVCD?...
I think the jury is still out, but I tend to agree with you. It won't be DVD in China this year.
IMO: VCD, SVCD and DVD are all competing for basically the same market. If someone comes out with a DVD player that can play CD, VCD, SVCD, DVD and cost the same as a SVCD player, they may be able to generate some interest.
asiansources.com
players
Opinions split on DVD adoption
The entry of DVD into the digital video player field has stirred mixed emotions among VCD player makers. Some are preparing to adopt the format and researching eventual player production; others prefer to wait and see, secure in the strength of the VCD market.
In mainland China, the DVD format has so far failed to capture a big audience. 1999 could see a significant change in attitude, however: The growing number of DVD releases from major US movie studios will likely bring in more consumer enthusiasm for DVD, even as continuing product introductions are steadily bringing player prices down.
The few interested Asian suppliers see mass production possible in the second half of this year. Sources in mainland China say major overseas manufacturers, aiming to offset losses in their VCD business, have begun setting up joint ventures for the production of DVD players. At least 15 local companies have launched samples or have begun batch production.
DVD technology is no big deal, a few major companies proclaim. "Batch production can be initiated at any time, if market conditions are favorable," said Su of Shenzhen SAST. If makers like these have any reservations, they have to do with the immaturity of the DVD market. "Considering the persistent demand for Super VCD players, we are unsure how our DVD players will fare," Su added.
At least one manufacturer has a concrete timetable. Guangdong Jinzheng plans to release DVD home theater system in the first half of 1999. This will put it a step ahead of many mainland China makers, according to the company's Tang.
Taiwan's Ensing follows a two-pronged course of getting its lines ready to produce DVD units, while actively pursuing R&D for its VCD business. A slackening in its VCD sales is encouraging the shift to DVD, says the firm's Chang. Research on DVD is nearly complete, but Chang refused to comment on when the company's first DVD players will likely be released.
Zi San Electronics, also of Taiwan, is much more cautious and will not expand into DVD players so long as its VCD business remains strong. The firm's Chen emphasizes that entering the DVD field requires a strong research capability — something many would-be entrants may not possess.
Both Yanion and SMC Multi-media of Hong Kong already produce DVD players but see no immediate demise for VCD models. SMC Multi-media's Ho said the DVD player will fully replace the VCD player in the firm's production only if DVD player prices come down.
That could be sooner, rather than later. Ho expects DVD demand to climb this year, causing sharp drops in FOB levels before the year 2000. As second- and third-generation DVD players come out, prices of first-generation models would go down, she notes.
For Yanion, the Super VCD format has proved a blessing, extending the lifespan of the VCD player for several more years and permitting it to remain a viable export item.
Malaysia's makers of VCD players say they are ready to go into DVD production once the economy has recovered and demand has climbed. TFP Precision said existing production facilities could be easily converted for the manufacture of the DVD player.
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