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Technology Stocks : SIEB Siebert Financial Brokerage
SIEB 2.760+3.6%9:42 AM EST
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To: Goldbug Guru who wrote (167)2/12/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) of 284
 
GG, thanks for the advice. You seem different than the regular SIEB and JBOH type of crowd. So let's have a discussion. Here is my reasons for being bearish on SIEB and Co.

(1) I've looked at the charts all the way back to 1983. SIEB has hardly ever gone above 5 and averages around 2. I'm a believer in return to the mean. And that means SIEB should go back to under 10.

(2) The stock was $5 two weeks ago. Tell me what has happend in the past two weeks to justify a 540% rise?

(3) This is a cut throat business that hardly anyone makes money in it. If it gets proven that you can make big money on as an E-brokerage, why can't the bigger, richer, more influential, houses with more resources crush SIEB, JBOH, NDB, and even AMTD?

(4) The market is very toppy. Interest rates are rising and earnings are falling. Everything will go down. When the bottom is reached, what are people and institutions more likely to buy, DELL and LU or SIEB and JBOH?

(5) The valuations of this stock is obscene. I know that Internet stocks are not value plays, but go ahead and compare the 3 year sales and earnings growth of SIEB with SCH and EGRP and then compare them on a price to sales ratio. Tell me what you find out.

(6) Did you take a close look at ENMD? The charts look very similar so far. I'm betting that they will resemble going forward as well.

Best of luck,
Sun Tzu

P.S. Thanks for leaving the uppercase writings on the shelf :)
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