Hi Thomas,
> I think RATL is in excellent position business-wise for the
> next few years.
I certainly agree with you. Don't take offense, but not too long
ago you felt RATL was 'high valued' on fundamentals. I know you're
a financial analyst and I do respect your and others knowledge
in that field (I realize the high P/E of RATL right now). Based
on fundamentals, RATL is definitely a risk investment.
Personally, since I'm in the same business as RATL I tend to use
my feelings and knowledge where I invest (not doing too bad!) but
I am curios what made you become so bullish on RATL ?
The announcement of suites is good, but since the suites will be
rather expensive the short-term sales might meet a resistance
at customers (in my world it's really a training issue, you need
to understand HOW to develop software before you know what tools
you should buy). I still haven't had the opportunity to dig into
these suites and see what they offer besides just being packaged
together (in terms of integration etc).
On the insider sellings, I'm not too worried. Many of the top
guys have been in the company for a long time (hey, I remember
when Rational sold HARDWARE!) and probably felt this was a time
when to do a moderate 'cash out' and use the money in the real
world. They've deserved it.
RATL shouldn't lose their focus and their brilliant market
position though (i.e. relying on existing products). If they can
maintain an aggressive position, they are growing with the
overall market (which will be tremendous). They have recently
trademarked a number of names based on "*smart" (Clientsmart
Pacing, ServerSmart Pacing, LoadSmart Scheduling, DataSmart
Recording) which indicates they have new products in the
making. Even though the "Internet" association is really hot,
I believe they should go for the label "excellence in software
development" because at the end of the day that's what Internet
development is about - their trying to get into current
Internet frenzy is wrong for RATL (not underestimating the
Internet, my belief is the real money will be in the
infrastructure for the Internet, among those stocks are RATL
- but let time and earnings show).
> If you want to know what will happen to the _STOCKPRICE_ over the
> next 2 months, I'm completely clueless: Could be up or down. I
> rather focus on the business: As long as the outlook is good,
> I'll be long.
I am totally clueless as well. The current level feels right, and
I don't expect any extreme run-ups or down-turns now (overall market
not considered). But as long as I belive in their long-term focus
and business model, I am long (and if what I personally believe
the software industry SHOULD go, RATL is a unbelievable winner!)
Best,
/Hans-Erik
P.S. Oh yeah, some technical complaint also: Rational Rose guys,
do get the Activity Diagram into Rose - it's ABSOLUTELY necessary
to do serious business modeling. You've done the integration stuff
with Seattle now, give us the activity diagram in Rose.
I demand it !! :-). |
