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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (46799)2/12/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
MB,

I think I've been pretty consistent since at least last August. On the big picture fundamentals, I believe there's a material probability that we're in the early stages of a global deflationary depression. While there are other scenarios I recognize are possible, I'd say the hard down is the most intellectually coherent. Still don't have a fix on the probabilities ... at least 10% for the global deflationary depression.

With respect to the PC industry, I've been trying to sift through data as it's coming out. I'm not close to the industry like Earlie is, so I have to work with the kind of data sources I can gather in forums like this. My bearish outlook on the big picture doesn't require a bearish outlook on the PC industry right now, but if the PC industry has gone south, then that could easily be the trigger that would pop the equity market bubble.

Peter
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