Bill,
This from Kitco-any comments on Y2K and/or Gary North?
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
Category:
Banking
Date: 1999-02-12 16:05:11
Subject:
Art Bell and the Gold Rush of '99
Comment:
Because of the significance of this posting, I will not be posting anything else until Monday afternoon. I do not want any visitor to skip over this posting. I do not want anyone writing me some version of this letter: "Why didn't you warn us? We have been followers of this site for two years. Etc."
Art Bell has 8 million listeners. I have been on his show three
times in the last seven months. I will be on again on
Friday/Saturday, Feb. 19/20.
Let's go through some statistics. In fiscal 1998 (ended Sept. 30),
the U.S. Mint sold just over one million ounces of gold coins. There
was a y2k-driven escalation in 1998, as I have reported before. In
January, 1999, the Mint sold 268,000 ounces.
About 83% of these were one-ounce American eagles. Americans
are allowed to put American gold eagles in their retirement
programs, and the one-ounce coin has the lowest commission.
That's the coin of choice for retirement programs.
The tenth-ounce coins are best for survival conditions: more
transactions per ounce. The Mint's output of these coins was in
the 8% range.
Maxed out, the Mint can produce a less than 4 million ounces of
gold coins a year -- more like 3.2 million. The Mint started
rationing coins last week.
Art Bell has 8 million listeners. If 40% of them were to buy a
single one-ounce coin, that would absorb more than the entire
year's output of all gold coins. If 20% of them bought two coins,
the same thing would happen. But they can't. The Mint is already
maxed out. It's rationing coins. It could not absorb another 3
million buyers. (This is hypothetical; the 100 or fewer coins
stores could not absorb a million orders of one ounce each.)
But what about the tenth-ounce coins? They are sold in units of
50 coins: 5 ounces each. If 8% of the coins produced by the Mint
are tenth-ounce coins, then there will be 260,000 ounces minted
in 1999. That would be fewer than 55,000 5-ounce tubes.
Therefore, if 1% of Art Bell's audience were to buy just one tube,
they would absorb far more than the entire year's output. But they
can't do this; the Mint is already maxed out.
Today, if you want small coins, and you don't want to wait 12
weeks for eagles, try the tenth-ounce Canadian maple leaf. It may
be available for another week. Maybe two.
Next Saturday morning -- early -- I will tell 8 million people
to buy tenth-ounce gold coins as soon as they can. I will
tell them it's first come-first served. I will tell them if they
continue to sit around talking about what they will do next
December, they will be out of the competition by April. They
cannot buy the coins right now, let alone next December. They
must get on a waiting list today. That's what rationing means.
Will 1% of them believe me?
Next Saturday morning.
A word to the wise is sufficient.
Will 1% of you believe me?
(I can hear it now. "Gee, Mabel, what do you suppose Dr. North
means? I wish he weren't so subtle.") |
